When gauging next year's fantasy impact from a crop of incoming rookies, the first thing to remember is that they really won't have much of a fantasy impact. I know that's not much of a grabber, but it's the truth. Every fantasy league has that guy that’s hung up on rookies, over-inflates their stock and ruins the fun for everybody else. I understand, believe me – they’re shiny, new, well-tailored, their whole lives and careers in front of them…expectations will never be higher than right now.
As we all learned by our mid-20’s, at a certain point most people start to need to temper those expectations.
Out of the 30 first rounders selected this year, you'll be lucky to see three of them become immediate fantasy contributors. Another five might become factors by the end of the year, but we're talking waiver wire contributors, not eighth round contributors. Want proof? Let's list the rookies last year that became surefire roto starters by, say, Thanksgiving and stayed that way until April.
1. Chris Paul
2. ...
And that's it. Yes, you could make a case for Andrew Bogut, Channing Frye, Charlie Villanueva and Deron Williams, but all four had their fair share of peaks and valleys over the course of the season. It's not their fault. They're rookies. If you took Bogut in the fifth round, rap yourself on the knuckles with the fact that you could have gotten the same production out of P.J. Brown in the tenth. Anyway, those other guys will all be solid choices for your imaginary squads – this
year.
So, instead of going through this pick by pick, while trying to tell you how by the year 2012, Saer Sene will average 2.8 blocks per game per 48 minutes, I'm just going to give you my top ten in terms of fantasy impact for the opening of the 2006-2007 season. In actuality, there's only 3 players as of right now I'd spend a mid-draft pick on at this point...
(As a brief caveat, all of these players might switch teams again between now and the time I file this.)
1. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail BlazersBy (eventually) going to the Blazers, Roy immediately placed highest on this list. With the ample playing time he'll garner (unless Steve Blake beats him out...but I'm just saying that to be nice to Steve Blake’s parents) and Zach Randolph to feed, Roy is the immediate favorite for fantasy and reality's Rookie of the Year.
2. Adam Morrison, Charlotte BobcatsIf Emeka Okafor comes back healthy, and Brevin Knight gets dealt, Charlotte will feature a very young, but very effective fantasy lineup. The nice thing about Morrison is that Charlotte doesn't have any small forwards of note, and does have low expectations. Add in the fact that Charlotte doesn't have a true go-to offensive threat, and you're looking at 15-17 points per game, with a three, nice percentages, and some boards to boot.
TIE for
2. Randy Foye, Minnesota TimberwolvesOne wonders how Foye will fit in with Ricky Davis demanding his usual amount of touches, but he could easily challenge Roy and Morrison for Rookie of the Roto Year. The Dwyane Wade comparisons seem a bit overblown (especially in light of the past 2 weeks), but Foye comes NBA-ready, and will play with Kevin Garnett, who's sure to help boost his fantasy prospects.
Foye is the real wild card of this draft. He could go absolutely nuts from the get-go. If he’s capable of even half the production of Wade this year, he’ll be worth a mid-round pick. Follow his progress closely this preseason.
4. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trailblazers
For all of the flagellation Blazers brass took from the ESPN panel, you have to admit, they got two (maybe four) really nice players last night. Aldridge can block shots, hit a jumper and will probably qualify at center. I think of all the big men in this year's draft, Aldridge will get the most playing time right out the gate. Again, I prefer more stable stocks at center, but as of right now, if Joel Przybilla leaves, he's gonna be worth a mid-to-late-round pick. Let’s just hope he works as hard as his buddy Chris Bosh to disassociate himself from that “soft” label.
5. J.J. Redick, Orlando MagicI feel your pain, buddy. Herniated discs caused me to slip from round one, to round two, and right into fantasy basketball. And there’s nothing like a nice libation to soothe a strained vertebrae – I just make sure The Current Mrs. Cregan is available to pick me up at the end of the night.
Redick figures to start and figures to hit a lot of threes. He may be strictly a two trick pony (points and three-pointers), but with Dwight Howard attracting more and more attention, and no real competition at his position, Redick probably figures for 10-13 points per game. He should also be good for your percentages, provided he gets to the line with any frequency.
6. Tyrus Thomas, Chicago Bulls
He's got the length, the hops, the wildly alliterative first name...isn't this all seeming a little Stromile-Swift-esque? That's a little unfair, but Chicago is loaded at forward and it'll probably take a (somewhat probable) injury to Tyson Chandler (or trade) for Thomas to have immediate impact. I'm also considering the fact
that he'll be playing for Scott Skiles, the Fantasy Vortex of Neverending Doom, the Bulls’ interest in Ben Wallace, and the fact that under Thomas' "Must Improve" column, ESPN listed "learn how to play basketball."
I think he’s gonna be real good – next year. If Chandler gets traded and the Bulls don’t sign Wallace, he’ll be worth a late-round pick.
But from a real world perspective, it’s just not fair how loaded the Bulls are.
7. Rudy Gay, Memphis GrizzliesHow in tarnation does Jerry West do it? I mean, don’t get me wrong, Shane Battier is a nice 6th or 7th guy. For fantasy purposes I hope he gets 35 MPG in Houston, because Battier could give you vintage Christie numbers if given the chance. Oh, that’s right. He’s playing for Van Gundy. Battier just fell off the face of the fantasy earth.
In this swap, Rudy Gay is the magic beans. With Pau Gasol developing into a true NBA star, Gay has the potential to become a roto stud. Don’t underestimate that he’ll be playing for the Former Czar of the Telestrator, who has a marvelous capacity for teaching young players. It may not come right away for Gay, but he could very well be the highest rated player of this group by next fall.
8. Shelden Williams, Atlanta HawksWas there ever a more narcoleptic top-5 pick?
On the other hand, the nice thing about Shelden Williams is how nicely he's going to slot in with the other 14 forwards on the Hawks’ roster. If Al Harrington escapes Atlanta as expected, Williams will get the opportunity to start at power forward, hopefully providing some solidity in a constantly evolving lineup. Indeed, I think what Billy Knight has constructed provides as powerful an argument for Natural Selection as the world has ever seen. Davis Guggenheim should make a documentary about him.
So, if Harrington bolts this summer and you’re feeling bored in round 9 or so, I might recommend taking a shot. The mediocrity of the Hawks will give a couple of these 14 forwards the chance to become fantasy contributors, and Williams is as solid a bet as any of them.
9. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto RaptorsBryan Colangelo knows what he’s doing, and Bargnani will eventually form a nice inside-outside threat with Bosh. I just don’t think it’ll happen right away – based on what we’ve seen from high European draft picks. Also realize he’s got to fight Villanueva (barring a trade) for his playing time. In the end, if Bargnani shows he’s more Pau Gasol than Darko Milicic this summer, I’ll revisit his spot on this list.
10. Ronnie Brewer, Utah JazzI really wanted to put Oleksiy Pecherov on this list. But as he’ll probably be playing in France until 2014, reality dictates that I put Brewer in here instead. Let me also add here that I’ve always loved watching Brewer play, so I might be a bit biased. But if Brewer gets off on the right foot with the loveably cantankerous Jerry Sloan, he’ll contribute immediately. The Jazz have a real need at the two, and Brewer fits the bill with flair.
John Cregan is a fantasy expert for
www.TalentedMrRoto.com.
